This paper explores the time series implications of introducing credit constraints into a production based asset pricing model. Simulations are performed choosing parameter values which generate reasonable values for aggregate fluctuations. These results show that mean reversion in simulated...

This paper seeks to develop a structural model that lets data on asset returns and trading volume speak to whether volatility autocorrelation comes from the fundamental that the trading process is pricing or, is caused by the trading process itself. Returns and volume data argue, in the context...

This paper examines the argument that the fixed exchange rate regime should be preferred to the flexible rate regime because the former allows risk sharing across countries while the latter does not. The analysis is performed in a two-country overlapping generations model, where markets are...

This paper tests the hypothesis that traders have rational expeatations and charge no risk premium in the forward exchange market. It uses a statistical procedure which is consistent under a large class of heteroscedasticity, and a set of data which takes into account the institutional features...

This paper presents the results of a post-sample simulation of a speculative strategy using a portfolio of foreign currency forward contracts.The main new features of the speculative strategy are (a)the use of Kalman filters to update the forecasting equation, (b) the allowance for...

There is reliable evidence that simple rules used by traders have some predictive value over the future movement of foreign exchange prices. This paper will review some of this evidence and discuss the economic magnitude of this predictability. The profitability of these trading rules will then...

We study a competitive credit market in which lenders with partial knowledge of loan repayment use one of three decision criteria - maximization of expected utility, maximin, or minimax regret - to make lending decisions. Lenders allocate endowments between loans and a safe asset, while...

This paper considers the observational implications of social influences on adoption decisions for an environment of perfect foresight adopters. We argue that social influences can produce two observable effects: 1) discontinuities in unconditional adoption curves and 2) pattern reversals in...

This paper provides a systematic analysis of identification in linear social interactions models. This is both a theoretical and an econometric exercise as the analysis is linked to a rigorously delineated model of interdependent decisions. We develop an incomplete information game that...

This paper presents a framework for understanding the limits that exist in optimal policy design in dynamic contexts. We consider the design of policies in the context of dynamic linear models. Fundamental design limits exist for policy rules in such environments in the sense that any policy...