Showing 1 - 10 of 541
Many important economic questions arising in auctions can be answered only with knowledge of the underlying primitive distributions governing bidder demand and information. An active literature has developed aiming to estimate these primitives by exploiting restrictions from economic theory as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005088630
This paper reviews recent methodological developments in the empirical analysis of imperfectly competitive markets highlighting outstanding problems. Some of these problems are econometric; e.g. the need for a deeper understanding of the small sample properties of our estimators. Most of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005720218
We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005079145
We provide a framework for evaluating and improving multivariate density forecasts. Among other things, the multivariate framework lets us evaluate the adequacy of density forecasts involving cross-variable interactions, such as time-varying conditional correlations. We also provide conditions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005829924
It depends. If volatility fluctuates in a forecastable way, then volatility forecasts are useful for risk management; hence the interest in volatility forecastability in the risk management literature. Volatility forecastability, however, varies with horizon, and different horizons are relevant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005830366
This paper studies the estimation of asset pricing model regressions with conditional alphas and betas, focusing on the joint effects of data snooping and spurious regression. We find that the regressions are reasonably well specified for conditional betas, even in settings where simple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005718502
Is order-flow an important component of private information possessed by traders in government securities markets? Utilizing a detailed data set on Government of Canada securities auctions, we argue that the answer is yes. Direct participation in these auctions is limited to government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005774578
I translate familiar concepts of discrete-time time-series to contnuous-time equivalent. I cover lag operators, ARMA models, the relation between levels and differences, integration and cointegration, and the Hansen-Sargent prediction formulas.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010785606
We propose and solve a small-scale New-Keynesian model with Markov sunspot shocks that move the economy between a targeted-inflation regime and a deflation regime and fit it to data from the U.S. and Japan. For the U.S. we find that adverse demand shocks have moved the economy to the zero lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969307
Uncertainty associated with the monetary policy transmission mechanism is a key driving force of business cycles. To investigate this link, we propose a new term structure model that allows the volatility of the yield curve to interact with macroeconomic indicators. The data favors a model with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950677