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A New Method of Estimating Potential Real GDP Growth: Implications for the Labor Market and the Debt/GDP Ratio

Gordon, Robert J. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014

Forecasts for the two or three years after mid-2014 have converged on growth rates of real GDP in the range of 3.0 to 3.5 percent, a major stepwise increase from realized growth of 2.1 percent between mid-2009 and mid-2014. However, these forecasts are based on the demand for goods and services....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950750

Population Aging

Weil, David - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2006

Population aging is primarily the result of past declines in fertility, which produced a decades long period in which the ratio of dependents to working age adults was reduced. Rising old-age dependency in many countries represents the inevitable passing of this %u201Cdemographic dividend.%u201D...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005084872

New Age Thinking: Alternative Ways of Measuring Age, Their Relationship to Labor Force Participation, Goverment Policies and GDP

Shoven, John B. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2007

The current practice of measuring age as years-since-birth, both in common practice and in the law, rather than alternative measures reflecting a person's stage in the lifecycle distorts important behavior such as retirement, saving, and the discussion of dependency ratios. Two alternative...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005830936

Health and Health Insurance Trajectories of Mexicans in the US

Kaushal, Neeraj; Kaestner, Robert - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2010

We study how the health and health insurance coverage of Mexican immigrants change with time in the US. Cross-sectional analyses suggest that approximately three decades of residency in the US is associated with a 9 to 11 percentage point (12% to 15%) decline in the probability of being...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008622322

The Demise of U.S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal, and Reflections

Gordon, Robert J. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014

The United States achieved a 2.0 percent average annual growth rate of real GDP per capita between 1891 and 2007. This paper predicts that growth in the 25 to 40 years after 2007 will be much slower, particularly for the great majority of the population. Future growth will be 1.3 percent per...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010821922

Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds

Gordon, Robert J. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012

This paper raises basic questions about the process of economic growth. It questions the assumption, nearly universal since Solow's seminal contributions of the 1950s, that economic growth is a continuous process that will persist forever. There was virtually no growth before 1750, and thus...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950998

Acting White or Acting Black: Mixed-Race Adolescents' Identity and Behavior

Ruebeck, Christopher Spiegelman; Averett, Susan L.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008

Although rates of interracial marriage are on the rise, we still know relatively little about the experiences of mixed-race … adolescents. In this paper, we examine the identity and behavior of mixed-race (black and white) youth. We find that mixed-race … characterized as "white". When we combine both types of behavior, average mixed-race behavior is a combination that is neither white …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005575483

Changes in the Characteristics of American Youth: Implications for Adult Outcomes

Altonji, Joseph G.; Lange, Fabian; Bharadwaj, Prashant - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008

are related to labor market success, including race, gender, parental background, education, test scores, and variables …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005829509

Women's Education and Family Behavior: Trends in Marriage, Divorce and Fertility

Isen, Adam; Stevenson, Betsey - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2010

This paper examines how marital and fertility patterns have changed along racial and educational lines for men and women. Historically, women with more education have been the least likely to marry and have children, but this marriage gap has eroded as the returns to marriage have changed....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008634700

Trying to Understand the PPPs in ICP2011: Why are the Results so Different?

Deaton, Angus; Aten, Bettina - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2014

Purchasing power parity exchange rates, or PPPs, are price indexes that summarize prices in each country relative to a numeraire country, typically the United States. These numbers are used to compare living standards across countries, by academics in studies of economic growth, particularly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011268048