open economies, and uses it to assess the effectiveness of Taylor rules and Inflation-Forecast-Based (IFB) rules in … stabilizing variability in output and inflation. Our findings suggest that a simple IFB rule that does not rely upon any direct … estimates of the equilibrium real interest rate and places a relatively high weight on the inflation forecast may perform better …

focuses solely on stabilizing nominal wage inflation. Furthermore, this simple wage stabilization rule is remarkably robust to …

In the United States, the rate of price inflation falls in recessions. Turning this observation into a useful inflation … forecasting equation is difficult because of multiple sources of time variation in the inflation process, including changes in Fed … policy and credibility. We propose a tightly parameterized model in which the deviation of inflation from a stochastic trend …

Recently a market in options based on CPI inflation (inflation caps and floors) has emerged in the US. This paper uses … quotes on these derivatives to construct probability densities for inflation. We study how these pdfs respond to news … empirical pricing kernels. The options-implied densities assign considerably more mass to extreme inflation outcomes (either …