Broadly speaking, two schools of thought have emerged to interpret China's rapid growth since 1978:the experimentalist school and the convergence school. The experimentalist school attributes China's successes to the evolutionary, experimental, and incremental nature of China's reforms....

Many studies of regional disparity in China have focused on the preferential policies received by the coastal provinces. We decomposed the location dummies in provincial growth regressions to obtain estimates of the effects of geography and policy on provincial growth rates in 1996-99. Their...

This paper has two aims. The first is to reduce the range within which the true U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit lies. The second is to identify the determinants of the bilateral trade deficit and offer an assessment of their relative importance. We calculate a smaller range of values for the...

This paper illustrates the role for macroeconomic policy coordination when interdependent economies are pursuing disinflationary policies. Under flexible exchangerates, policy makers have an incentive to reduce inflation by pursuing contractionary policies that yield a currency appreciation. In...

This paper develops a general equilibrium two country, two commodity dynamic simulation model of international trade in commodities and financial claims. The model generalizes the Heckscher-Ohlin static theory of trade by incorporating costs of quickly adjusting levels of capital stocks in...

We argue that allowing for the possibility of a self-fulfilling panic helps in understanding several features of the recent Mexican crisis. Self-fulfilling expectations became decisive in generating a panic only after the government ran down gross reserves and ran up short-term dollar debt. We...

This paper tests the existence and the extent of a politically induced business cycle in the U.S. in the post-World War II period. The cycle described in this paper is different from the traditional "political business cycle" of Nordhaus. It is based on a systematic difference between the...

This paper raises several cautionary notes regarding high-conditionality lending by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in the context of international debt crisis. It is argued that the role for high-conditionality lending is more restricted than generally believed, because...

Chapter 1 gives a brief introduction to the Bolivian economy. Chapter 2 provides an overview of the political economy of macroeconomic policymaking in Bolivia since the 1952 Revolution. Great stress is put on the weakness of fiscal institutions in the face of heavy social and sectoral demands....

This paper provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the effects of input price shocks on economic growth, with a focus on United Kingdom manufacturing in the 1970s. The theoretical model predicts a discrete decline in out- put and productivity after an input price rise, and a longer-run...