This paper shows how probability questions can be answered within the context of macroeconometric models by using stochastic simulation. One can estimate, for example, the probability of a recession occurring within some fixed period in the future. Probability estimates are presented for two...

We examine the small sample properties of tests of rational expectations models. We show using Monte Carlo experiments that the asymptotic distribution of test statistics can be extremely misleading when the tine series examined are highly autoregressive. In particular, a practitioner relying on...

This paper shows how to generate the joint distribution of correlated random variables with specified marginal distributions. For cases where the marginal distributions are either normal or lognormal, it shows how to calculate analytically the correlation of the underlying normal distributions...

A computationally feasible method for the full information maximum likelihood estimation of models with rational expectations is described in this paper. The stochastic simulation of such models is also described. The methods discussed in this paper should open the way for many more tests of the...

This paper considers the use of the polynomial distributed lag (PDL) technique when the lag length is estimated rather than fixed. We focus on the case where the degree of the polynomial is fixed, the polynomial is constrained to be zero at a certain lag length q, and q is estimated along with...

A solution method and an estimation method for nonlinear rational expectations models are presented in this paper. The solution method can be used in forecasting and policy applications and can handle models with serial correlation and multiple viewpoint dates. When applied to linear models, the...

Difference in differences methods have become very popular in applied work. This paper provides a new method for inference in these models when there are a small number of policy changes. This situation occurs in many implementations of these estimators. Identification of the key parameter...

We propose a portmanteau test for serial correlation of the error term in a fixed effects model. The test is derived as a conditional Lagrange multiplier test, but it also has a straightforward Wald test interpretation. In Monte Carlo experiments, the test displays good size and power properties

This paper introduces a method for solving numerical dynamic stochastic optimization problems that avoids rootfinding operations. The idea is applicable to many microeconomic and macroeconomic problems, including life cycle, buffer-stock, and stochastic growth problems. Software is provided

The dynamics of a linear (or linearized) dynamic stochastic economic model can be expressed in terms of matrices (A,B,C,D) that define a state space system. An associated state space system (A,K,C,Sigma) determines a vector autoregression for observables available to an econometrician. We review...