We define the Fisherian Golden Rule measure of bond market inflation expectations as the difference between bond rates … expectations for low inflation were substantially, but not fully regained for the industrial countries as a group … and trend real GDP growth rates. The concept is based on the Fisherian theory that an increase in longer-term inflation …

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …

, and the exchange rate is priced by uncovered interest parity, the real exchange rate is determined by expected inflation …-squares learning path for the real exchange rate implied by inflation and output gap data exhibits the real depreciation of the 70s …

2007. The shock increased households' inflation expectations during 2006 and actual inflation in 2007. Germans' willingness …Unconventional fiscal policy uses announcements of future increases in consumption taxes to generate inflation … expectations and accelerate consumption expenditure. It is budget neutral and time consistent. We exploit a unique natural …

Switzerland. Even with wide differences in inflation processes across these countries, there is we find strong evidence that the … term structure does have significant forecasting ability for future changes in inflation, particularly so at long …