The US and other advanced countries suffered bursts of severe inflation in 2021 and the first half of 2022, followed by declines of inflation later in 2022, in some countries. In times of high volatility of price determinants--cost and productivity--inflation can jump upward and fall downward at...

Using data from a large survey of American households, we compare density forecasts elicited with bins- and scenarios-based questions. We show that inflation density forecasts are sensitive to the survey question designs used to elicit them. The within-person discrepancy is smaller, but still...

This paper discusses the recent wave of research that has emphasized the importance of measures of consumers' inflation expectations. In contrast to other measures of expected inflation, such as for experts or financial market participants, consumers' inflation expectations capture the broader...

This paper provides new survey evidence on firms' inflation expectations in the euro area. Building on the ECB's Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), we introduce consistent measurement of inflation expectations across countries and shed new light on the properties and causal...

This paper derives the curvature properties of the short-run Phillips curve in a class of canonical models of price-setting frictions. Contrary to conventional thinking, the Phillips curve is asymptotically horizontal for high levels of economic activity and asymptotically vertical for low...

In a model of memory and selective recall, household inflation expectations remain rigid when inflation is anchored but exhibit sharp instability during inflation surges, as similarity prompts retrieval of forgotten high-inflation experiences. Using data from the New York Fed's Survey of...

The past half-century has seen major shifts in inflation expectations, how inflation comoves with the business cycle, and how stocks comove with Treasury bonds. Against this backdrop, we review the economic channels and empirical evidence on how inflation is priced in financial markets. Not all...

We use data from a large panel survey of UK firms to analyze the economic drivers of price setting since the start of the Covid pandemic. Inflation responded asymmetrically to movements in demand. This helps to explain why inflation did not fall much during the negative initial pandemic demand...

What is the effect of higher expectations of future inflation on current inflation? I compute this passthrough for a series of canonical firm-pricing models, but allowing for arbitrary (non-rational) expectations. In the Calvo model, the expectational-passthrough can be made arbitrarily close to...

We show that, in a broad class of menu cost models, the dynamics of aggregate inflation in response to arbitrary shocks to aggregate costs are nearly the same as in Calvo models with suitably chosen Calvo adjustment frequencies. We first prove that the canonical menu cost model is first-order...