The collapse in the 1980s of familiar relationships connecting money to either income or prices has thrown into question long-standing presumptions about the appropriate conduct of monetary policy. Once data from the 1980s are included, tests of several kinds -- including simple regression...

The prevailing view of the economic consequences of financing government deficits, as reflected in the recent economics literature and in recent public policy debates, reflects serious misunderstandings. Debt-financed deficits need not "crowd out" any private investment, and may even "crowd in"...

This paper examines the response of the term structure of interest rates to weekly money announcements. Estimated responses for both the pre- and post-October 1979 periods are first presented. Then, two competing hypotheses involving the policy anticipations and expected inflation effects are...

The three sections of this paper support three related conclusions. First, asset demands with the familiar properties of wealth homogeneity and linearity in expected returns follow as close approximations from expected utility maximizing behavior under the assumptions of constant relative risk...

This paper summarizes some recent work in which we have modeled long-term interest rate determination in an explicit demand-supply context, using multi-equation structural models and directly contrasts such models with unrestricted reduced-form models. Wholly apart from questions of...

This paper develops behavioral relationships explaining investors' demands for long-term bonds, using three alternative hypotheses about investors' expectations of future bond prices (yields). The results, based on U.S. 'data for six major categories of bond market investors, consistently...

Among the numerous familiar sets of specific assumptions sufficient to derive mean-variance portfolio behavior from more general expected utility maximization in continuous time, the assumptions of constant relative risk aversion and joint normally distributed asset return assessments are also...

This paper derives an estimation procedure which, when the same distributed lag appears twice in an equation to be estimated by least-squares regression, identifies all of the relevant coefficients and lag weights and also constrains the two sets of individual lag weights to be identical. The...

This paper examines the pervasiveness of the effects of U.S. monetary policy regime shifts and unanticipated changes in money on international financial markets. Four potential regimes from October 1977 to May 1985 are examined in terms of the response of yen-denominated securities in the Tokyo...

The response of interest rates to money announcement surprises is examined both theoretically and empirically in this paper. In the theoretical models developed, not only changes in operating procedures, but also reserve requirement systems, are found to potentially affect the response....