According to ECB (2023) and European Systemic Risk Board (2022), Swedish owner-occupied housing (OOH) was overvalued by about 55% in 2021q2, the largest overvaluation in the EU and EEA; according to European Commission (2023c), by about 30% in 2022. These assessments affect warnings and...

Swedish authorities and international organizations that comment on Swedish economic policy have argued that household debt is too high and a threat to financial and macroeconomic stability (FMS). But household debt may become a threat to FMS under essentially three conditions: (1) Household...

The general monetary policy strategy of "forecast targeting" allows the Federal Reserve to respond flexibly to all relevant information in achieving its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. In contrast, a simple "instrument" rule such as a Taylor-type rule restricts the...

The "debt-overhang hypothesis" - that households cut back more on their spending in a crisis when they have higher levels of outstanding mortgage debt (Dynan, 2012) - seems to be taken for granted by macroprudential authorities in several countries in their policy decisions, as well as by the...

The "debt-overhang hypothesis" - that households cut back more on their spending in a crisis when they have higher levels of outstanding mortgage debt (Dynan, 2012) - seems to be taken for granted by macroprudential authorities in several countries in their policy decisions, as well as by the...

The paper presents estimates of devaluation expectations for six EMS currencies relative to the Deutsche mark, for the period March 1979-May 1990. The estimation method is simple and operational, and consistently generates sensible results. The estimates are constructed by the adjusting interest...

A stochastic two-country neoclassical rational expectations model with sticky prices -- optimally set by monopolistically competitive firms -- and possible excess capacity is developed to examine international spillover effects on output of monetary disturbances. The Mundell-Fleming model...

Recent sanctions on the use of Russia's international reserve assets seem likely to reduce the appeal of US dollar reserves as a "shock absorber" for international payments. But international reserves are also a means to reassure foreign investors that problematic countries will not confiscate...

Recent financial crises in emerging markets have been followed by temporary but substantial losses in output. This paper explores the possibility that threats of such losses are the dominant incentive for repayment of international debt. In this environment private debtors and creditors have...

First generation models of speculative attacks show that apparently random speculative attacks on policy regimes can be fully consistent with rational and well-informed speculative behavior. Unfortunately, models driven by a conflict between exchange rate policy and other macroeconomic...