First, I show that the current U.S. situation in which safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for a long time, is more the historical norm than the exception. If the future is like the past, this implies that debt rollovers, that is the issuance of debt without a later...

In a collaborative project with ten central banks, we have investigated the causes of the post-pandemic global inflation, building on our earlier work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due primarily to supply disruptions and sharp increases in...

We answer the question posed by the title by specifying and estimating a simple dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation expectations. The estimated model allows us to analyze the direct and indirect effects of product-market and labor-market shocks on prices and...

Can governments roll their debt over forever in dynamically efficient economies, and thus avoid the need to raise taxes? While the answer is a clear no under certainty, it depends, under uncertainty, on whether public debt provides intergenerational insurance. When it does not, rollover is not...

In a two-period Lucas tree economy in which ex ante identical, but ex post dissimilar, agents face undiversifiable labor income risk, calibrating a (wrong) representative agent model results in overstating the equilibrium riskfree rate and in understanding the equilibrium equity premium if the...

This paper studies the implications for general equilibrium asset pricing of a recently introduced class of Kreps-Porteus non-expected utility preferences, which is characterized by a constant intertemporal elasticity of substitution and a constant, but unrelated, coefficient of relative risk...

In monetary economies, international differences in rates of time preference do not in general lead to long run trade imbalances -- in sharp contrast with Butter's 119811 results on non-monetary overlapping generation economies. This claim is documented within the context of a simple two country...

It is often argued that a rational bubble, because it is positive, must increase the price of a stock. This argument is not valid in general: as soon as bubbles affect interest rates, the fundamental value of a stock depends on whether or not a bubble is present. The existence of a rational...

This paper looks at models of unemployment which make two central assumptions. The first is that wages are bargained between firms and employed workers, and that unemployment affects the outcome only to the extent that it affects the labor market prospects of either employed workers or of firms....

This paper shows how one can interpret the joint movements of wages, unemployment and vacancies in the Phillips and Beveridge spaces to learn about the origins of the movements in unemployment. The view of the labor market underlying the conceptual framework emphasizes flows, matching, and Nash...