We revisit time-variation in the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with breakpoints to US and European Union disaggregate data. Our approach allows us to accurately estimate both the number and timing of breaks in the Phillips curve. It further allows us to determine the...

This paper builds on the landmark contribution of Glosten (1994) by treating the determination of limit order supply schedules as an exercise in asset pricing theory with the possible sizes of incoming market orders as the value-relevant states of nature, yielding an analogue of the Fundamental...

This paper discusses inference for rational expectations models estimated via minimum distance methods by characterizing the probability beliefs regarding the data generating process (DGP) that are compatible with given moment conditions. The null hypothesis is taken to be rational expectations...

This paper provides a road map for building a contingent claims theory of limit order markets grounded in a simple observation: limit orders are equivalent to a portfolio of cash-or-nothing and asset-or-nothing digital options on market order flow. However, limit orders are not conventional...

This essay reviews the extensive literature on empirical testing of asset pricing models. It briefly describes the kinds of asset pricing models typically tested in the literature and explicates their econometric implications, both in terms of the estimation of relevant parameters and tests of...

The efficient markets hypothesis has dominated modern research on asset prices. Asset prices and their intrinsic values differ in inefficient financial markets but difficulties in the measurement of intrinsic value greatly complicate market efficiency tests. Reflections on the measurement of...

These notes discuss three aspects of dynamic factor pricing (i.e., APT) models. The first one is that diversifiable idiosyncratic risk is unpredictable in a no-arbitrage world. The second feature is that the conditional factor loadings or betas on the common factors are approximately constant...

In a Modigliani-Miller world, price equals the risk-adjusted present value of future dividends and dividend policy is irrelevant for asset pricing. This paper searches for cash flows with two characteristics: asset prices can be calculated from their present values and they are invariant with...

Much of the theoretical basis for current monetary and financial theory rests on the economic efficiency of financial markets. Not surprisingly, considerable effort has been expended to test the efficient markets hypothesis, usually by examination of the predictability of equity returns....