By preemptive austerity, we mean a policy that increases taxes to deter potential rollover crises. The policy is so successful that the usual danger signal of a rollover crisis, a high yield on new bonds sold, does not show up because the policy eliminates the danger. Mechanically, high taxes...

A key contention in economics is the discrepancy between micro and macro elasticities of labor supply with respect to marginal tax rates. We revisit this question, focusing on the role of dynamic returns to effort among top earners. We develop a new model of earnings responses to taxes in the...

We study equilibria in a heterogeneous-agent incomplete-market economy with nominal government debt and flexible prices. Unlike in representative agent economies, steady-state equilibria exist when the government runs persistent deficits, provided that the level of deficits is not too large. In...

Entitlement programs have become an increasing component of total government spending in the US over the last six decades. To some observers, this growth of the welfare state is excessive and unwarranted. To others, it is a welcome counter-acting force to the rapid increase in income inequality....

We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in U.S. history had large spending impacts and small job-finding impacts. This finding has three implications. First, increased benefits were important for explaining aggregate spending dynamics--but not employment dynamics--during the...

We investigate the impact of a permanent unconditional cash transfer called "Citizen's Basic Income" in the city of Maricá, Brazil. At the time of the study, the program made monthly household-level transfers of USD 180 PPP on average to about a fourth of the city's residents. The program is...

Economists have studied the impact of numerous state laws, from welfare rules to voting ID requirements. Yet for all this policy evaluation, what do we know about policy diffusion--how these policies spread from state to state? We present a series of facts based on a data set of over 700 U.S....

Fiscal policy in the U.S. and other countries renders intertemporal budgets non-differentiable, nonconvex, and discontinuous. Consequently, assessing work and saving responses to policy requires global optimization. This paper develops the Global Life-Cycle Optimizer (GLO), a stochastic...

A large literature has documented that fiscal policy is procyclical in emerging markets and developing economies and acyclical/countercyclical in advanced economies. This paper analyzes fiscal procyclicality in commodity-exporting countries. It first shows that the degree of fiscal...

How do different income taxation systems affect household decisions and welfare? We answer this question by first documenting the strong labor supply disincentives for secondary earners of the U.S. tax system and by using variations from the Bush Tax Cuts to assess their effects on...