This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks in an international vector autoregression. Using high-frequency data on the prices of Fed Funds futures contracts, we measure the impact of the surprise component of the FOMC-day Federal Reserve policy...

Employing a large number of real and financial indicators, we use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to forecast real-time measures of economic activity. Importantly, the predictor set includes option-adjusted credit spread indexes based on bond portfolios sorted by maturity and credit risk as...

It is well known that augmenting a standard linear regression model with variables that are correlated with the error term but uncorrelated with the original regressors will increase asymptotic efficiency of the original coefficients. We argue that in the context of predicting excess returns,...

Many recent papers have found that atheoretical forecasting methods using many predictors give better predictions for key macroeconomic variables than various small-model methods. The practical relevance of these results is open to question, however, because these papers generally use ex post...

This paper estimates the impact of admission to formal vocational secondary programs on labor market outcomes in Mongolia. We conducted public lotteries to allocate scarce slots for approximately 8,000 students who applied to oversubscribed trades in 10 vocational schools during 2010, 2011, and...

Combining eight years of panel data with an event study approach, we show that rural Chinese women's labor supply falls for one year following the birth of a daughter before returning to their pre-birth levels. The negative impact of the birth of a son on women's labor supply is much larger in...

Using a randomized experiment with an automobile manufacturing firm in China, we measure the effects of letting workers evaluate their managers on worker and firm outcomes. In the treatment teams, workers evaluate their supervisors monthly. We find that providing feedback leads to significant...

We estimate the individual returns to temporary migration programs using a randomized experiment with several thousand job seekers in India applying to guest worker jobs in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Working with construction companies and the UAE Ministry of Labor, we randomized job offers...

The federal funds rate has been stuck at the zero bound for over two years and the Fed has turned to unconventional monetary policies, such as large scale asset purchases to provide stimulus to the economy. This paper uses a structural VAR with daily data to identify the effects of monetary...

In the 2018 comprehensive update of the national income and product accounts, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released not seasonally adjusted data, and modified its seasonal adjustment procedures. I find some indication of residual seasonality in the seasonally adjusted data as published before...