Similar Search Results

Mistrust, Misperception, and Misunderstanding : Imperfect Information and Conflict Dynamics

Acemoglu, Daron; Wolitzky, Alexander - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

-degenerate higher-order beliefs) can lead to conflict and drive its dynamics. We develop our analysis in the context of three classic … learning about the opponent's type, as well as the possibility of conflict spirals, traps, and cycles; and a deterrence model …. We relate these models to the empirical literature and to current and historical episodes of conflict …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372438

Central Bank Communication with the Polarized Public

Kuang, Pei; Weber, Michael; Xie, Shihan - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

This paper examines the impact of political polarization on public trust in the Fed and its influence on macroeconomic expectations. Using a large-scale survey experiment which we fielded on President Trump's 2025 inauguration day, we study how households form beliefs about the Fed regarding its...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015326517

Measuring the Tolerance of the State : Theory and Application to Protest

Andirin, Veli; Neggers, Yusuf; Shadmehr, Mehdi; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We develop a measure of a regime's tolerance for an action by its citizens. We ground our measure in an economic model and apply it to the setting of political protest. In the model, a regime anticipating a protest can take a costly action to repress it. We define the regime's tolerance as the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334386

Culture Clash : Incompatible Reputation Mechanisms and Intergroup Conflict

Fouka, Vasiliki; Schläpfer, Alain - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

Under what conditions does intergroup contact lead to conflict? We provide a novel answer to this question by … highlighting the role of reputation mechanisms in sustaining cooperation. Reputational concerns can deter defection in one … cooperation within a group, we show theoretically that interactions of individuals from a punishment-based culture with those from …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013388873

The Voting Premium

Levit, Doron Y.; Malenko, Nadya; Maug, Ernst G. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

This paper develops a unified theory of blockholder governance and the voting premium, in a setting without takeovers and controlling shareholders. A voting premium emerges when a minority blockholder tries to influence the composition of the shareholder base by accumulating votes and buying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014437023

Plata y Plomo : How Higher Wages Expose Politicians to Criminal Violence

Pulejo, Massimo; Querubín Borrero, Pablo - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

Adequate wages are an important tool to shield public officials from special interests and corruption. But what is the equilibrium effect of higher wages in the presence of criminal pressure groups, who use both bribes and violence? By means of a regression discontinuity design, we show that an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337819

Inequality and Racial Backlash : Evidence from the Reconstruction Era and the Freedmen's Bureau

Chyn, Eric; Haggag, Kareem; Stuart, Bryan A. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

How do majority groups respond to a narrowing of inequality in racially polarized environments? We study this question by examining the effects of the Freedmen's Bureau, an agency created after the U.S. Civil War to provide aid to former slaves and launch institutional reform in the South. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528354

Logrolling in Congress

Battaglini, Marco; Sciabolazza, Valerio Leone; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We study vote trading among U.S. Congress members. By tracking roll-call votes within bills across five legislatures and politicians' personal connections made during the school years, we document a propensity of connected legislators to vote together that depends on how salient the bill is to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250186

Mispricing Narratives after Social Unrest

Ba, Bocar A.; Ndiaye, Abdoulaye; Rivera, Roman; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We study how negative sentiment around an industry impacts beliefs and behaviors, focusing on demands for racial justice after the murder of George Floyd and the salience of the "defund the police" movement. We assess stakeholder beliefs on the impact of protests on the stock prices of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635693

Why Did Putin Invade Ukraine? A Theory of Degenerate Autocracy

Egorov, Georgij V.; Sonin, Konstantin - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

Many, if not most, personalistic dictatorships end up with a disastrous decision such as Hitler's attack on the Soviet Union, Hirohito's government launching a war against the United States, or Putin's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Even if the decision is not ultimately fatal for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250204