This paper makes indirect inference about the time-variation in expected stock returns by comparing unconditional sample variances to estimates of expected conditional variances. The evidence reveals more predictability as more information is used, and no evidence that predictability has...

This paper makes indirect inference about the time-variation in expected stock returns by comparing unconditional sample variances to estimates of expected conditional variances. The evidence reveals more predictability as more information is used, and no evidence that predictability has...

Three concepts: stochastic discount factors, multi-beta pricing and mean variance efficiency, are at the core of modern empirical asset pricing. This paper reviews these paradigms and the relations among them, concentrating on conditional asset pricing models where lagged variables serve as...

Mimicking portfolios have long been useful in asset pricing research. In most empirical applications, the portfolio weights are assumed to be fixed over time, while in theory they may be functions of the economic state. This paper derives and characterizes mimicking portfolios in the presence of...

The literature has not unambiguously established that a positive alpha, as traditionally measured, means that an investor would want to buy a fund. However, when alpha is defined using the client's marginal utility function, a client faced with a positive alpha would generally want to buy. When...

This paper studies the ability of long-run risk models to explain out-of-sample asset returns during 1931-2009. The long-run risk models perform relatively well on the momentum effect. A cointegrated version of the model outperforms the classical, stationary version. Both the long-run and the...

This paper studies the estimation of asset pricing model regressions with conditional alphas and betas, focusing on the joint effects of data snooping and spurious regression. We find that the regressions are reasonably well specified for conditional betas, even in settings where simple...

We develop asset pricing models' implications for portfolio efficiency when there is conditioning information in the form of a set of lagged instruments. A model of expected returns identifies a portfolio that should be minimum variance efficient with respect to the conditioning information. Our...

Even though stock returns are not highly autocorrelated, there is a spurious regression bias in predictive regressions for stock returns related to the classic studies of Yule (1926) and Granger and Newbold (1974). Data mining for predictor variables interacts with spurious regression bias. The...

We study the use of stochastic discount factor (SDF) models in evaluating the investment performance of portfolio managers. By constructing artificial mutual funds with known levels of investment ability, we evaluate a large set of SDF models. We find that the measures of performance are not...