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After the Global Financial Crisis a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty of identifying multipliers from observational data. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459247
modestly negative long-run multipliers around -0.42. The multiplier is sensitive to the fraction of transfers given to credit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461546
A central question in applied research is to estimate the effect of an exogenous intervention or shock on an outcome. The intervention can affect the outcome and controls on impact and over time. Moreover, there can be subsequent feedback between outcomes, controls and the intervention. Many of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056147
decomposition-based approach, we show how to unpack heterogeneity in the fiscal multiplier, an object that at any point in time may … our application, the fiscal multiplier varies considerably with monetary policy: it can be as small as zero, or as large …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226168
Renewed interest in fiscal policy has increased the use of quantitative models to evaluate policy. Because of modelling uncertainty, it is essential that policy evaluations be robust to alternative assumptions. We find that models currently being used in practice to evaluate fiscal policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463865
We use Bayesian prior and posterior analysis of a monetary DSGE model, extended to include fiscal details and two distinct monetary-fiscal policy regimes, to quantify government spending multipliers in U.S. data. The combination of model specification, observable data, and relatively diffuse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457235
canonical medium scale DSGE model. When monetary policy is characterized by a Taylor rule, the output multiplier (the change in … cycle, whereas the welfare multiplier (the consumption equivalent change in a measure of aggregate welfare for the same …. The welfare multiplier is still procyclical under passive monetary policy, albeit less so than under a Taylor rule …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458914
We provide explicit solutions for government spending multipliers during a liquidity trap and within a fixed exchange regime using standard closed and open-economy models. We confirm the potential for large multipliers during liquidity traps. For a currency union, we show that self-financed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460278
The fiscal "multiplier" measures how many additional dollars of output are gained or lost for each dollar of fiscal … stimulus or contraction. In practice, the multiplier at any point in time depends on the monetary policy response and existing …, we show how to quantify the importance of these monetary-fiscal interactions. In the data, the fiscal multiplier varies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481896
. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects of a shock as it is transmitted through other countries' output … multiplier effects are large and significant and can transmit shocks in very different patterns than predicted from a bilateral …-trade matrix. For example, due to these output-multiplier effects, a shock to one country can have a large impact on countries that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470116