Showing 1 - 10 of 5,754
This paper studies the predictability of ultra high-frequency stock returns and durations to relevant price, volume and transactions events, using machine learning methods. We find that, contrary to low frequency and long horizon returns, where predictability is rare and inconsistent,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362020
We survey the nascent literature on machine learning in the study of financial markets. We highlight the best examples of what this line of research has to offer and recommend promising directions for future research. This survey is designed for both financial economists interested in grasping...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322889
A consensus has recently emerged that variables beyond the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve can help predict bond returns. This paper shows that the statistical tests underlying this evidence are subject to serious small-sample distortions. We propose more robust tests, including a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455201
Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good … forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this …, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility at the daily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472795
multiple stochastic volatility processes. The estimation is based on annual consumption data from 1929 to 1959, monthly … are omitted from the estimation). Three independent volatility processes capture different frequency dynamics; our … predictable component and use high-frequency data, whenever available, to efficiently identify the volatility processes. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458363
, including the average equity premium and the volatility of equity returns. We construct a model with RE (temporary and permanent … parts) and LRR (including stochastic volatility) and estimate this model with long-term data on aggregate consumption for 42 … economies. RE typically associates with major historical episodes, such as the world wars and the Great Depression and analogous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456801
This paper describes a process for automatically generating academic finance papers using large language models (LLMs). It demonstrates the process' efficacy by producing hundreds of complete papers on stock return predictability, a topic particularly well-suited for our illustration. We first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015195009
Despite positive and significant earnings announcement premia, we find that institutional investors reduce their exposure to stocks before earnings announcements. A novel result on the sensitivity of flows to individual stock returns provides a potential explanation. We show that extreme...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322748
structure to commodity futures prices, and develop new algorithms for estimation of such models using unbalanced data sets in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459606
We theoretically characterize the behavior of machine learning asset pricing models. We prove that expected out-of-sample model performance--in terms of SDF Sharpe ratio and test asset pricing errors--is improving in model parameterization (or "complexity"). Our empirical findings verify the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372446