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Did the U.S. Really Grow Out of Its World War II Debt?

Acalin, Julien; Ball, Laurence M. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

The fall in the U.S. public debt/GDP ratio from 106% in 1946 to 23% in 1974 is often attributed to high rates of economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged interest rates before the Fed-Treasury Accord of 1951....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337810

How to Sell Public Debt in Uncertain Times

Cole, Harold L.; Neuhann, Daniel; Ordoñez, Guillermo - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

How should governments structure primary sovereign bond markets when investors face asymmetric uncertainty about default risk and total demand? Standard protocols either use uniform prices for all investors, or price discriminate based on bid prices ("pay as bid"). Uniform pricing encourages...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015361492

Hidden Debt Revelations

Horn, Sebastian; Mihalyi, David; Nickol, Philipp; Sosa … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

How reliable are public debt statistics? This paper quantifies the magnitude, characteristics, and timing of hidden debt by tracking ex post data revisions across a comprehensive new database of more than 50 vintages of World Bank debt statistics. In a sample of debt data covering 146 countries...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015072889

The Economics of Sovereign Debt, Bailouts and the Eurozone Crisis

Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier - 2020

Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, ranging from roughly 0.5% (Ireland) to 43% (Greece) of 2011 output during the … recent Eurozone crisis. We propose a model to analyze and understand bailouts in a monetary union, and the large observed … activity, debt-to-gdp ratio, default costs). Our model embeds a 'Southern view' of the crisis (transfers did not help) and a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481598

The Fiscal Consequences of Missing an Inflation Target

Andreolli, Michele; Rey, Hélène - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

The European Central Bank is unique in setting monetary policy for several sovereign states with heterogeneous debt levels and different maturity structures. The monetary-fiscal nexus is central to the functioning of the euro area. We focus on one particular aspect of that nexus, the effect the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537713

Information Spillovers and Sovereign Debt : Theory Meets the Eurozone Crisis

Cole, Harold L.; Neuhann, Daniel; Ordoñez, Guillermo - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

result, shocks to default risk in one country may trigger crisis episodes with widespread information acquisition, sharp … sovereign debt crisis …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334434

The Puzzling Behavior of Spreads during Covid

Fourakis, Stelios S.; Karabarbounis, Loukas - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Advanced economies borrowed substantially during the Covid recession to fund their fiscal policy. The Covid recession differed from the Great Recession in that sovereign debt markets remained calm and spreads barely responded. We study the experience of Greece, the most extreme manifestation of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468244

Managing Public Portfolios

Aparisi de Lannoy, Leo R.; Bhandari, Anmol; Evans, David; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We develop a unified framework for optimally managing public portfolios for a class of macro-finance models that include widely-used specifications for households' risk and liquidity preferences, market structures for financial assets, and trading frictions. An optimal portfolio hedges...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013388857

Government Debt and Capital Accumulation in an Era of Low Interest Rates

Mankiw, Nicholas Gregory - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

This essay discusses the reasons for and implications of the decline in real interest rates around the world over the past several decades. It suggests that the decline in interest rates is largely explicable from trends in saving, growth, and markups. In this environment, greater government...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210052

Putting US Fiscal Policy on a Sustainable Path

Dynan, Karen E.; Elmendorf, Douglas W. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

fiscal crisis. Yet, the probability of a near-term fiscal crisis is difficult to assess: Yields on Treasury debt are within …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015409782