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Predicting Insurance Demand from Risk Attitudes

Jaspersen, Johannes G. - 2019

Can measured risk attitudes and associated structural models predict insurance demand? In an experiment (n = 1,730), we … insurance choices over different loss probabilities and prices. The insurance choices show coherence and some correlation with … various risk-attitude measures. Yet all the structural models predict insurance poorly, often less accurately than random …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480452

Biased Surveys

Valchev, Rosen; Gemmi, Luca - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We find evidence suggesting that surveys of professional forecasters are biased by strategic incentives. First, we find that individual forecasts overreact to idiosyncratic information but underreact to common information. Second, we show that this bias is not present in forecasts data that is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337840

Mispricing Narratives after Social Unrest

Ba, Bocar A.; Ndiaye, Abdoulaye; Rivera, Roman; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We study how negative sentiment around an industry impacts beliefs and behaviors, focusing on demands for racial justice after the murder of George Floyd and the salience of the "defund the police" movement. We assess stakeholder beliefs on the impact of protests on the stock prices of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635693

Empirical Analyses of Selection and Welfare in Insurance Markets : A Self-Indulgent Survey

Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

This review article, which was solicited by the Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, surveys work that has been done using … an empirical framework for analyzing selection in insurance markets developed by Einav, Finkelstein, and Cullen (2010 … across an array of settings in both insurance and credit markets. We also discuss some of the useful extensions to the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250164

Fatal Errors : The Mortality Value of Accurate Weather Forecasts

Shrader, Jeffrey; Bakkensen, Laura; Lemoine, Derek - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We provide the first revealed preference estimates of the benefits of routine weather forecasts. The benefits come from how people use advance information to reduce mortality from heat and cold. Theoretically, more accurate forecasts reduce mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322749

Revisiting the Forecasts of Others

Chahrour, Ryan; Jurado, Kyle - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

In macroeconomic models with dispersed information, agents have an incentive to learn from endogenous variables, which themselves depend on the forecasts of others. This paper revisits the model of Townsend (1983) to characterize how this mechanism affects equilibrium dynamics. The first part of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015409824

Households' Response to the Wealth Effects of Inflation

Schnorpfeil, Philip; Weber, Michael; Hackethal, Andreas - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We study the redistributive effects of inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372429

Perceived Political Bias of the Federal Reserve

Kuang, Pei; Weber, Michael; Xie, Shihan - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We conduct a survey experiment with a large, politically representative sample of U.S. consumers (5,205 participants) to study how perceptions of the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) political stance shape macroeconomic expectations and trust in the Fed. The public is divided on the Fed's political...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015094913

Inflation and Trading

Schnorpfeil, Philip; Weber, Michael; Hackethal, Andreas - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We study how investors respond to inflation combining a customized survey experiment with trading data at a time of historically high inflation. Investors' beliefs about the stock return-inflation relation are very heterogeneous in the cross section and on average too optimistic. Moreover, many...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544748

Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models

Koşar, Gizem; O'Dea, Cormac - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

A growing literature uses now widely-available data on beliefs and expectations in the estimation of structural models. In this chapter, we review this literature, with an emphasis on models of individual and household behavior. We first show how expectations data have been used to relax strong...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210122