Showing 1 - 10 of 1,312
We develop a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that Federal Reserve staff prepare in advance of policy decisions, we capture the Fed's information set. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544696
Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but … inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056186
Why do some attempts at disinflation lead to substantial reductions in inflation while others do not? We investigate … that a fundamental determinant of success in reducing inflation was the strength of the Federal Reserve's commitment to … disinflation at the start of its attempts. In episodes where its commitment was high, there were significant declines in inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635629
Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur … more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional … views that inflation will surge without swift rate rises. The key question is whether expectations are forward looking or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210124
We measure the heterogeneous welfare effects of the recent inflation surge across households in the Euro Area. A simple … framework illustrating the numerous channels of the transmission mechanism of surprise inflation to household welfare guides our …; (ii) this inflation episode resembles an age-dependent tax, with the elderly losing up to 20%, and roughly half of the 25 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014437027
This paper studies people's understanding of inflation--their perceived causes, consequences, trade-offs--and the … views align with established economic theories. Our key findings show that the major perceived causes of inflation include … negative consequences of inflation but the most noted one is the increased complexity and difficulty in household decision …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544775
fluctuations associated with these events are also discussed, as is their role in the recent surge of inflation, with a particular …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322883
We document how supply-chain pressures, household inflation expectations, and firm pricing power interacted to induce … the pandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the euro area. Initially, supply-chain pressures increased inflation … through a cost-push channel and raised inflation expectations. Subsequently, the cost-push channel intensified as firms with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014421216
explosion of inflation during his administration (above 1,500% on a six-month annualized measure) was predictable, and that the … that the combination of runaway inflation, shortages, and black markets generated major disaffection among the middle class …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014437020
We study the redistributive effects of inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision … experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are … concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while many households know about inflation eroding nominal assets, most are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372429