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explosion of inflation during his administration (above 1,500% on a six-month annualized measure) was predictable, and that the … that the combination of runaway inflation, shortages, and black markets generated major disaffection among the middle class …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014437020
We study the redistributive effects of inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision … experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are … concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while many households know about inflation eroding nominal assets, most are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372429
policy will temporarily aid debt sustainability through a temporary burst in inflation. The anticipation of a possible reform … links debt levels with inflation expectations. As a result, interest rates have two effects: they influence demand and … affect expected inflation in opposite directions. The expectations effect is linked to the impact of interest rates on public …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015145141
To what extent is the recent spike in inflation driven by a change in its permanent component? We estimate a semi …-structural model of output, inflation, and the nominal interest rate in the United States over the period 1900-2021. The model predicts … that between 2019 and 2021 the permanent component of inflation rose by 51 basis points. If instead we estimate the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362011
to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies--event studies, vector … through a disinflationary channel in the Phillips curve while monetary and fiscal stimuli put positive pressure on inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015094886
We show that, in a broad class of menu cost models, the dynamics of aggregate inflation in response to arbitrary shocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334481
We develop a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that Federal Reserve staff prepare in advance of policy decisions, we capture the Fed's information set. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544696
inflation, building on our earlier work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due … bank inflation targets. As the effects of supply shocks have subsided, tight labor markets, and the rises in nominal wages …, have become relatively more important sources of inflation in many countries. In several countries, including the United …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544809
The standard measure of core or underlying inflation is the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices. This paper … constructs an alternative measure, the weighted median inflation rate, for 38 advanced and emerging economies using subclass …, and more closely related to headline inflation over the next year. The weighted median also has a drawback: in most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247953
Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but … inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056186