By preemptive austerity, we mean a policy that increases taxes to deter potential rollover crises. The policy is so successful that the usual danger signal of a rollover crisis, a high yield on new bonds sold, does not show up because the policy eliminates the danger. Mechanically, high taxes...

We study the role of exchange rates in industrial policy. We construct an open-economy macroeconomic framework with production externalities and show that the desirability of these policies critically depends on the dynamic patterns of externalities. When they are stronger in earlier stages of...

What are the long-run effects of permanent changes to the economy? We characterize long-run comparative statics for a broad class of models in terms of expenditure shares, substitution elasticities, and capital supply elasticities. Our key insight is that long-run analysis can be performed using...

The evolution of the IMS and IFS in the past several hundred years can be viewed through the lens of the Copernican heliocentric system developed over 500 years ago. We trace out the evolution across regimes of the IMS and IFS in terms of network representations of the Copernican system. We...

We examine how financial crises redistribute risk, employing novel empirical methods and micro data from the largest financial crisis of the 20th century - the Great Depression. Using balance-sheet and systemic risk measures at the bank level, we build an econometric model with incidental...

Causal inference methods are widely used in empirical research; however, there is a paucity of evidence on the properties of shared latent factor estimators in the presence of contaminated instrumental variable (IV) when a strong IV may not be available. We present a theoretical formulation to...

We study the reasons for the large, coincident increases in unbalanced international trade and overall trade from 1970 to 2019. We show that these two salient features--a rise in net and gross international trade--are largely a consequence of a reduction in intratemporal trade barriers rather...

This paper is a case study of the exchange rate adjustments during the first week following the swapping US election results. We compute three measures of exchange rate depreciation: the maximum depreciation during the 1st trading day after November 6 UTC 0:00 to capture the reaction on the...