Even allowing for substantial uncertainty regarding projections, current US fiscal policies are almost certainly unsustainable. Therefore, policymakers must decide when and in what ways to change policies. Changing policies sooner rather than later would put debt on a lower trajectory and...

We study cointegrating relationships among fiscal variables and output and use them to introduce a new measure of the government's fiscal position. In the US since World War II, we find that the primary surplus-GDP ratio and the government debt-GDP ratio are nonstationary, which invalidates...

This paper examines the tradeoffs of monitoring for wasteful public spending. By penalizing unnecessary spending, monitoring improves the quality of public expenditure and incentivizes firms to invest in compliance technology. I study a large Medicare program that monitored for unnecessary...

This paper investigates the causal effect of job training on wage rates in the presence of firm heterogeneity. When training affects worker sorting to firms, sample selection is no longer binary but is "multilayered". This paper extends the canonical Heckman (1979) sample selection model - which...

Could policy changes boost economic growth enough and at a low enough cost to meaningfully reduce federal budget deficits? We assess seven areas of economic policy: immigration of high-skilled workers, housing regulation, safety net programs, regulation of electricity transmission, government...

The European place-based policy framework was established in the European Treaties and has a current budget of $60-70 billion per year. This paper identifies key features and directions for its future development with respect to three place-based problems: traditionally lagging regions;...

In order to encourage anti-drug policing, both the federal government and many state governments have enacted laws that allow police agencies to keep a substantial fraction of assets that they seize in drug arrests. By adjusting their own allocations to police budgets, however, county...

Some natural resources -- oil and minerals in particular -- exert a negative and nonlinear impact on growth via their deleterious impact on institutional quality. We show this result to be very robust. The Nigerian experience provides telling confirmation of this aspect of natural resources....

This report examines how oil and gas production generates revenue for local governments in eight states through four key mechanisms: (i) state taxes or fees on oil and gas production; (ii) local property taxes on oil and gas property; (iii) leasing of state-owned land; and (iv) leasing of...

Oil and gas development associated with shale resources has increased substantially in the United States, with important implications for local governments. These governments tend to experience increased revenue from a variety of sources, such as severance taxes distributed by the state...