Showing 1 - 10 of 3,288
. Finally, we apply these findings to the empirical estimation of regime-dependent fiscal multipliers and find multipliers less …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372466
We revisit time-variation in the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with breakpoints to US and European Union disaggregate data. Our approach allows us to accurately estimate both the number and timing of breaks in the Phillips curve. It further allows us to determine the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250170
This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463776
We develop and implement a new method for maximum likelihood estimation in closed-form of stochastic volatility models … unobservable volatility state, to an approximate likelihood procedure where the volatility state is replaced by the implied … volatility of a short dated at-the-money option. We find that the approximation results in a negligible loss of accuracy. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468114
We propose a novel method to estimate dynamic equilibrium models with stochastic volatility. First, we characterize the … exploits the profusion of shocks in stochastic volatility models, is versatile and computationally tractable even in large … methods to estimate a business cycle model of the U.S. economy with both stochastic volatility and parameter drifting in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460260
This paper extends the class of stochastic volatility diffusions for asset returns to encompass Poisson jumps of time … as well as stochastic volatility with a pronounced negative relationship between return and volatility innovations. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470208
with the size of this correlation, and also with the persistence of shocks to volatility. An application to the US stock …. This application also shows that only low frequency shocks to volatility exhibit enough persistence to generate sizable …This paper analyzes optimal portfolio choice and consumption with stochastic volatility in incomplete markets. Using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471407
-sample parameter estimates and pronounced intertemporal volatility persistence. Meanwhile, when judged by standard forecast evaluation …Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good … forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472795
This paper introduces the News Impact Curve to measure how new information is incorporated into volatility estimates. A … shape of the News Impact Curve. New diagnostic tests are presented which emphasize the asymmetry of the volatility response …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475330
We consider impulse response inference in a locally misspecified stationary vector autoregression (VAR) model. The conventional local projection (LP) confidence interval has correct coverage even when the misspecification is so large that it can be detected with probability approaching 1. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544773