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Using a sample of 20 emerging countries from 1880 to 1913, we study the determinants and output effects of sudden stops in capital inflows during an era of intensified globalization. We find that higher levels of original sin (hard currency debt to total debt) and large current account deficits...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465157
choices tend to experience smaller output volatility in the last two decades. Emerging markets with relatively low … international reserves/GDP could experience higher levels of output volatility when they choose a policy combination with a greater … degree of policy divergence. Yet this heightened output volatility effect does not apply to economies with relatively high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460852
choices matter for output volatility and the medium-term level of inflation. Greater monetary independence is associated with … lower output volatility while greater exchange rate stability implies greater output volatility, which can be mitigated if a … inflation rate. We find that trilemma policy configurations and external finances affect output volatility through the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462774
This paper shows how changes in the volatility of the real interest rate at which small open emerging economies borrow … motivate our investigation, we document the strong evidence of time-varying volatility in the real interest rates faced by a … sample of four emerging small open economies: Argentina, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Brazil. We postulate a stochastic volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463773
suffered most increases in output volatility as a result …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471355
This paper investigates the potential impacts of the degree of divergence in open macroeconomic policies in the context of the trilemma hypothesis. Using an index that measures the relative policy divergence among the three trilemma policy choices, namely monetary independence, exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459214
Alexander Swoboda is one of the originators of the bipolar view that capital mobility creates pressure for countries to abandon intermediate exchange rate arrangements in favor of greater flexibility and harder pegs. This paper takes another look at the evidence for this hypothesis using two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464545
time-series volatility of productivity are also characterized by greater cross-sectional dispersion in productivity …. Volatility in TFP explains one quarter to one third of cross-country productivity dispersion. We document a similar relationship … between productivity volatility and the dispersion of the marginal revenue product of capital (static capital misallocation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461482
Recurrent concerns over debt sustainability in emerging and developed nations have prompted renewed debate on the role of fiscal rules. Their optimality, however, remains unclear. We provide a quantitative analysis of fiscal rules in a standard model of sovereign debt accumulation and default...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455311
We trace the linkages between the episodes of fiscal expansion and consolidation in 72 advanced and emerging and developing economies. The findings suggest that fiscal expansions are positively associated with economic growth, which in turn is positively linked with better sustainable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794621