, and strategic choice. The analysis shows that while Knightian uncertainty creates a more challenging decision environment … entrepreneurial priors, and Bayesian updating. The paper also explores connections to effectuation theory, finding that formal …

In line with the fallacy of riskification of uncertainty by which decision makers believe that the effects of … markets, such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and financial crises--as a problem of risk management. This is … institutional theory that points to stakeholder and institutional dynamics affecting economic incentives to invest in prevention and …

afflict medical decision making, I apply basic decision theory to suggest reasonable decision criteria with well …This paper discusses how limited ability to assess patient risk of illness and predict treatment response may affect …

We demonstrate the pitfalls when extrapolating behavioral findings across different contexts and decision environments …. We focus on regret theory and the use of "regret lotteries" for motivating behavior change. Here, findings from one … theory and experiments, we replicate regret lotteries as the superior one-shot incentive; however, for repeated decisions the …

We present a theory of choice among lotteries in which the decision maker's attention is drawn to (precisely defined …) salient payoffs. This leads the decision maker to a context-dependent representation of lotteries in which true probabilities … are replaced by decision weights distorted in favor of salient payoffs. By endogenizing decision weights as a function of …

Uncertainty is a ubiquitous concern emphasized by policymakers. We study how uncertainty affects decision-making by the …-managed uncertainty introduces a wedge between the standard Taylor-type policy rule and the optimal decision. Using private Fed …

unsuccessfully vaccinated. This paper studies the decision problems faced by health planners who must choose whether to approve a new … will yield if the vaccine is approved. I study the decision to mandate an approved vaccine as a choice between vaccinating …-care decisions. Considering decision making with partial knowledge, I show that it may be possible to determine optimal policies in …

We review and extend the economic analysis of risk and uncertainty as it relates to behavior mitigating health shocks … for risk-sharing in health by pooling the health care spending risk. In a sense, medical innovation involves a current …

probabilistic terms: we are facing deep uncertainty or ambiguity rather than risk in the classical sense, rendering the classical … resolve these into various components, commenting on their relative importance. Then we review decision-making frameworks that …