We derive closed-form solutions and sufficient statistics for inflation and GDP dynamics in multi-sector New Keynesian economies with arbitrary input-output linkages. Analytically, we decompose how production linkages (1) amplify the persistence of inflation and GDP responses to monetary and...

We provide theory and evidence that relative price shocks can cause aggregate inflation and act as aggregate supply shocks. Empirically, we show that exogenous positive energy price shocks have a positive impact not only on headline but also on U.S. core inflation while depressing U.S. real...

We study newsworthiness in theory and practice. We focus on situations in which a news outlet observes the realization of a state of the world and must decide whether to report the realization to a consumer who pays an opportunity cost to consume the report. The consumer-optimal reporting...

We argue that comprehensive out-of-sample (OOS) evaluation using statistical decision theory (SDT) should replace the current practice of K-fold and Common Task Framework validation in machine learning (ML) research. SDT provides a formal framework for performing comprehensive OOS evaluation...

In medical treatment and elsewhere, it has become standard to base treatment intensity (dosage) on evidence in randomized trials. Yet it has been rare to study how outcomes vary with dosage. In trials to obtain drug approval, the norm has been to specify some dose of a new drug and compare it...

Empirical researchers frequently rely on normal approximations in order to summarize and communicate uncertainty about their findings to their scientific audience. When such approximations are unreliable, they can lead the audience to make misguided decisions. We propose to measure the failure...

Spain together with Scotland are two countries that exhibit the largest expansions in long term care (LTC) in the last two decades, universalizing subsidies and supports. This paper is part of a global effort to provide a snapshot of the trends in LTC use and access, as well as the financing,...

This paper studies a form of liquidity risk that we call 'Liquidity After Solvency Hedging' or "LASH" risk. Financial institutions take LASH risk when they hedge against solvency risk, using strategies that require liquidity when the solvency of the institution improves. We focus on LASH risk...

We study aggregate lapsation risk in the life insurance sector. Using the regulatory reporting of historical lapse rates by life insurers, we empirically document the counter-cyclicality of lapsation behavior. We construct two lapsation risk factors that explain a large fraction of the common...

Before the era of large central bank balance sheets, banks relied on incoming payments to fund outgoing payments in order to conserve scarce liquidity. Even in the era of large central bank balance sheets, rather than funding payments with abundant reserve balances, we show that outgoing...