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Business Cycles, Investment Shocks, and the "Barro-King" Curse

Ascari, Guido - 2016

short-run contractionary effect a positive investment shock on consumption. Such counterfactual co-movements are typical of … on impact of a positive investment shock …Recent empirical evidence identifies investment shocks as key driving forces behind business cycle fluctuations …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455739

Tail Risk in Production Networks

Dew-Becker, Ian - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

shock to the sector - a measure of the systemic risk of each sector. Tail centrality is theoretically and empirically very …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013388835

Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks Revisited : Theory and Evidence

Afrouzi, Hassan; Bhattarai, Saroj; Wu, Edson - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

predictions. Motivated by post-COVID inflation in the U.S., a model experiment shows that a one-time relative price shock …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056141

Growth and Fluctuations : An Overview

Stiglitz, Joseph E. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Capitalism since its inception has been marked by large fluctuations. The resulting episodic unemployment has been very costly. This paper provides an overview of alternative theories. Standard models (such as DSGE) have not provided insights into the causes of the fluctuations and the shocks...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015171621

Attention Cycles

Flynn, Joel P.; Sastry, Karthik - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

and shock propagation asymmetries …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576581

The Macroeconomics of Narratives

Flynn, Joel P.; Sastry, Karthik - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We study the macroeconomic implications of narratives, defined as beliefs about the economy that spread contagiously. In an otherwise standard business-cycle model, narratives generate persistent and belief-driven fluctuations. Sufficiently contagious narratives can "go viral," generating...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576631

How Important Are Terms Of Trade Shocks?

Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie - 2015

According to conventional wisdom, terms of trade shocks represent a major source of business cycles in emerging and poor countries. This view is largely based on the analysis of calibrated business-cycle models. We argue that the view that emerges from empirical SVAR models is strikingly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457414

Trade Openness, Investment Instability and Terms-of-Trade Volatility

Razin, Assaf - 2002

In the presence of economies of scale in the investment technology, trade openness may have non-conventional effects on … the level of investment, its cyclical behavior, and the volatility of the terms of trade. Trade openness may lead to boom …-bust cycles of investment supported by self-fulfilling expectations. The economy may oscillate between 'optimistic' expectations …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469374

Business Cycles With A Common Trend in Neutral and Investment-Specific Productivity

Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie - 2010

investment-specific productivity. We document that in U.S. postwar quarterly data total factor productivity (TFP) and the … relative price of investment are cointegrated. We show theoretically that TFP and the relative price of investment are … cointegrated if and only if neutral and investment-specific productivity share a common stochastic trend. We econometrically …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462583

Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks : A Natural Language Approach

Aruoba, S. Borağan; Drechsel, Thomas - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We develop a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that Federal Reserve staff prepare in advance of policy decisions, we capture the Fed's information set. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544696