Similar Search Results

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of US Elections

Calvo, Richard; Pons, Vincent; Shapiro, Jesse M. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

on US elections since 1952. We envision a forecaster who fits a model using data from a given election and uses that … each election will have a 50-50 partisan split. Enriching the set of demographics available does not change this conclusion …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015094858

Partisan Traps

Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan; Dziuda, Wioletta - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

Electoral incentives may lead policymakers to eschew opportunities for common-interest reform, focusing instead on zero-sum, partisan policymaking. By forgoing opportunities for common-interest reforms, incumbents may convince their constituents that such reforms are rarely feasible, so that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436958

Skill of the Immigrants and Vote of the Natives : Immigration and Nationalism in European Elections 2007-2016

Moriconi, Simone - 2018

In this paper we document the impact of immigration at the regional level on Europeans' political preferences as expressed by voting behavior in parliamentary or presidential elections between 2007 and 2016. We combine individual data on party voting with a classification of each party's...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480728

Voting and Political Participation in the Aftermath of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic

Mansour, Hani - 2020

This is the first study to examine the effect of experiencing a widespread, deadly epidemic on voting behavior. Using data on elections to the U.S House of Representatives and leveraging cross-district variation in HIV/AIDS mortality during the period 1983-1987, we document the effects of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481066

Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties : Analyzing Text from Twitter

Giavazzi, Francesco - 2020

We study the role of perceived threats from cultural diversity induced by terrorist attacks and a salient criminal event on public discourse and voters' support for far-right parties. We first develop a rule which allocates Twitter users in Germany to electoral districts and then use a machine...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479348

Universalism and Political Representation : Evidence from the Field

Enke, Benjamin; Fisman, Raymond; Freitas, Luis Mota; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

This paper provides field evidence on the link between morals and political behavior. We develop a theory-guided real-stakes measure of each U.S. district's values on the universalism-particularism continuum, which reflects the degree to which charitable giving decreases as a function of social...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287365

Party Affiliation, Partisanship, and Political Beliefs : A Field Experiment

Gerber, Alan S. - 2009

Political partisanship is strongly correlated with attitudes and behavior, but it is unclear from this pattern whether partisan identity has a causal effect on political behavior and attitudes. We report the results of a field experiment designed to investigate the causal effect of party...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463285

Party Discipline and Pork Barrel Politics

Grossman, Gene M. - 2005

Polities differ in the extent to which political parties can pre-commit to carry out promised policy actions if they take power. Commitment problems may arise due to a divergence between the ex ante incentives facing national parties that seek to capture control of the legislature and the ex...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467285

Understanding the Success of the Know-Nothing Party

Alsan, Marcella - 2020

We study the contribution of economic conditions to the success of the first avowedly nativist political party in the United States. The Know-Nothing Party gained control of a number of state governments in the 1854-1856 elections running on a staunchly anti-Catholic and anti-Irish platform. Our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482297

Electoral College and Election Fraud

Egorov, Georgij V.; Sonin, Konstantin - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

One frequently overlooked aspect of the U.S.-style electoral college system is that it discourages election fraud. In a … presidential election based on the popular vote, competing political parties are motivated to manipulate votes in areas where they … electoral college system provides more effective protection against election fraud compared to the popular vote system. While …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322861