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International data suggests that fluctuations in the level and volatility of the world interest rate (as measured by the US treasury bill rate) are positively correlated with both the level and volatility of sovereign spreads in emerging economies. We incorporate an estimated time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481187
This paper seeks to understand the interplay between banks, bank regulation, sovereign default risk and central bank … regulators in risky countries have an incentive to allow their banks to hold home risky bonds and risk defaults, while regulators … cheaply, effectively shifting the risk of some of the potential sovereign default losses on the common central bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459318
We review the literature on sovereign debt. We organize our survey around three central questions: (1) Why do sovereign debtors ever repay their debts? (2) What burdens, in the form of distortions and inefficiencies, does sovereign debt impose? and (3) How might debt be restructured to reduce...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473755
This paper presents a continuous-time model of sovereign debt. In it, a relatively impatient sovereign government's hidden type switches back and forth between a commitment type, which cannot default, and an optimizing type, which can default at any time, and assume outside lenders have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453038
A large literature has developed quantitative versions of the Eaton and Gersovitz (1981) model to analyze default episodes on external debt. In this paper, we study whether the same framework can be applied to the analysis of debt crises in which domestic public debt plays a prominent role. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480634
We develop a multicountry model in which default in one country triggers default in other countries. Countries are linked to one another by borrowing from and renegotiating with common lenders with concave payoffs. A foreign default increases incentives to default at home because it makes new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459113
This paper studies the recessionary effects of sovereign default risk using firm-level data and a model of sovereign … the government and raises the risk that it will default on its debt. The associated increase in sovereign interest rate … the effects that sovereign risk has on real economic activity. In an application to Italy, we find that the progressive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455367
-insurance, liquidity and risk-sharing. The government's aim to redistribute resources across agents and through time in response to …, the default decision, and risk premia. Calibrated to Spanish data, the model is consistent with key cyclical co …, are preceded by surging debt and spreads, and occur with relatively low external debt. Default risk limits the sustainable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456169
national economy. It is based on the modern theory and practice of contingent claims analysis (CCA), which is successfully used … today at the level of individual banks by managers, investors, and regulators. The basic analytical tool is the risk … the effects of asset-liability mismatches within and across institutions. Risk-adjusted CCA balance sheets facilitate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465032
In this paper, we use data from developing countries to argue that sovereign defaults are often caused by fiscal pressures generated by large-scale domestic defaults. We argue that these systemic domestic defaults are caused by shocks best interpreted as being non-fundamental. We construct a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464852