We provide new facts about the role of multinationals in the decline in U.S. manufacturing employment between 1993-2011, using a novel microdata panel with firm-level ownership and trade information. Multinational-owned establishments displayed lower employment growth than a narrow control group...

We measure export participation rates in the U.S. manufacturing sector using a new administrative dataset and compare them to participation rates constructed from the commonly used Census of Manufacturers (CM). Both at the establishment and firm level export participation rates are near 40...

We provide evidence that industries' supply curves are convex. To guide our empirical analysis, we develop a putty-clay model in which capacity constraints at the plant level generate convex supply curves at the industry level. The model's key insight is that an industry's capacity utilization...

We propose a novel approach to estimate the trade elasticity at various horizons. When large countries change Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariffs, small trading partners that are not in a preferential trade agreement experience plausibly exogenous tariff changes. The differential growth rates of...

Yes. We state closed-form expressions for steady state gains from trade that apply in a class of dynamic trade models that includes dynamic versions of the Krugman (1980), Melitz (2003), and customer capital (e.g., Arkolakis, 2010) models. The gains are a function of the domestic trade share and...

We provide evidence for a causal link between the US economy and the global financial cycle. Using intraday data, we show that US macroeconomic news releases have large and significant effects on global risky asset prices. Stock price indexes of 27 countries, the VIX, and commodity prices all...

Existing high-frequency monetary policy shocks explain surprisingly little variation in stock prices and exchange rates around FOMC announcements. Further, both of these asset classes display heightened volatility relative to non-announcement times. We use a heteroskedasticity-based procedure to...

We analyze several rounds of U.S. import restrictions against washing machines. Using retail price data, we estimate the price effect of these import restrictions by comparing the price changes of washers with those of other appliances. We find that in response to the 2018 tariffs on nearly all...

Global value chains (GVC) are a pervasive feature of modern production, but they are hard to measure. Using confidential microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau, we develop novel measures of the linkages between U.S. manufacturing establishments' imports and exports. We document three new GVC...

Prior literature has established that displaced workers suffer persistent earnings losses by following workers in administrative data after mass layoffs. This literature assumes that these are involuntary separations owing to economic distress. This paper examines this assumption by matching...