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Updating Beliefs with Ambiguous Evidence : Implications for Polarization

Fryer, Roland G, Jr - 2013

We introduce and analyze a model in which agents observe sequences of signals about the state of the world, some of which are ambiguous and open to interpretation. Instead of using Bayes' rule on the whole sequence, our decision makers use Bayes' rule in an iterative way: first to interpret each...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459547

Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction

Zarnowitz, Victor - 1983

surveys provide unique informationon probabilistic forecast distributions reported by a large number of individuals for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477929

Mispricing Narratives after Social Unrest

Ba, Bocar A.; Ndiaye, Abdoulaye; Rivera, Roman; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We study how negative sentiment around an industry impacts beliefs and behaviors, focusing on demands for racial justice after the murder of George Floyd and the salience of the "defund the police" movement. We assess stakeholder beliefs on the impact of protests on the stock prices of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635693

Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters

Engelberg, Joseph - 2006

We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that SPF forecasters summarize their underlying distributions in different ways and that their summaries tend...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466693

Macroeconomic Derivatives : An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk

Gurkaynak, Refet - 2006

. Finally we assess the role of risk, finding little evidence that risk-aversion drives a wedge between market prices and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466742

Expectations with Endogenous Information Acquisition : An Experimental Investigation

Fuster, Andreas - 2018

Information frictions play an important role in many theories of expectation formation and macroeconomic fluctuations. We use a survey experiment to generate direct evidence on how people acquire and process information, in the context of national home price expectations. We let consumers buy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012452954

Educational Choices, Subjective Expectations, and Credit Constraints

Attanasio, Orazio - 2009

data allow us to derive measures of expected idiosyncratic returns to schooling as well as measures of individual risk … perceptions of earnings and unemployment risk. Therefore we can analyze for two important school attendance decisions, high school … and college, whether parents' or youths' expectations matter and whether expected returns or risk perceptions are …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463492

Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis

García-Schmidt, Mariana - 2015

We illustrate a pitfall that can result from the common practice of assessing alternative monetary policies purely by considering the perfect foresight equilibria (PFE) consistent with the proposed rule. In a standard New Keynesian model, such analysis may seem to support the "Neo-Fisherian"...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457055

Myopia and Discounting

Gabaix, Xavier - 2017

We assume that perfectly patient agents estimate the value of future events by generating noisy, unbiased simulations and combining those signals with priors to form posteriors. These posterior expectations exhibit as-if discounting: agents make choices as if they were maximizing a stream of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455427

Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity

Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús - 2011

We study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity. Fiscal deficits and public debt have risen sharply in the wake of the financial crisis. While these developments make fiscal consolidation inevitable, there is considerable uncertainty about...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461340