Macroeconometric and financial researchers often use secondary or constructed binary random variables that differ in terms of their statistical properties from the primary random variables used in micro-econometric studies. One important difference between primary and secondary binary variables...

Macroeconometric and financial researchers often use secondary or constructed binary random variables that differ in terms of their statistical properties from the primary random variables used in microeconometric studies. One important difference between primary and secondary binary variables...

Economic events such as expansions and recessions in economic activity, bull and bear markets in stock prices and financial crises have long attracted substantial interest. In recent times there has been a focus upon predicting the events and constructing Early Warning Systems of them....

The fact that the Global Financial Crisis, and the Great Recession it ushered in, was largely unforeseen, has led to the common opinion that macroeconomic models and analysis is deficient in some way. Of course it has probably always been true that businessmen, journalists and politicians have...

To match the NBER business cycle features it is necessary to employ Generalised dynamic categorical (GDC) models that impose certain phase restrictions and permit multiple indexes. Theory suggests additional shape restrictions in the form of monotonicity and boundedness of certain transition...