We assume the short-term rate to revert towards a central tendency which in, turn, is stochastically changing over time. We impose minimal restrictions on the joint behavior of the short-term rate and the central-tendency factor, and derive implications for the term structure of interest rates....

We assume that the instantaneous riskless rate reverts towards a central tendency which, in turn, is changing stochastically over time, and we derive a model of the term structure of interest rates. Our term-structure model implies that a linear combination of any two rates can be used as a...

We assume that the instantaneous riskless rate reverts toward a central tendency which, in turn, is changing stochastically over time. As a result, current short-term rates are not sufficient to predict future short-term rates movements, as it would be the case if the central tendency was...

We explore the effects of overnight-rate targeting on nominal interest rates of longer maturities. In a realistic model of noisy targeting and infrequent target changes, expectations of future policy actions introduce persistent spreads between interest rates of different maturities. Some...

We explore the link between the overnight fed funds rate, which is actively targeted by the Federal Reserve, and longer-maturity term fed funds rates. We develop a term-structure model which explicitly accounts for interest rate targeting and for the predictability of future target changes. The...

This paper examines newly-available intraday data from the interdealer government bond market to investigate the effects of economic-news announcements on prices, volume, and bid-ask spreads. By using expectational data we are able to separate out the impact of concurrent announcements. The use...

This paper examines newly-available intra-day data from the inter-dealer government bond market to investigate the effects of economic-news announcements on prices, trading volume, and bid-ask spreads. The use of intra-day price data together with data on market expectations allows us to obtain...

This paper reexamines the proxy hypothesis of Fama (American Economic Review, 1981, 71, 545-565) as the main explanation for the negative correlation between stock returns and inflation. We look at quarterly data on industrial-production growth, monetary-base growth, CPI inflation, three-month...

Real money balances are held separately for consumption and portfolio reasons. When real balances are a state variable in the investor s optimization problem, there is a specific inflation-hedging portfolio. An investor hedges against inflation when the effect of real money holdings on the...

We consider the impact of transaction costs on the portfolio decisions of a long-lived agent with isoelastic preferences. In particular, we focus on how portfolio choice, rebalancing frequency and average cost incurred change over the lifecycle are affected by return predictability. Two types of...