For a central bank knowledge of the monetary policy transmission mechanism is a prerequisite for achieving its final goal, i.e. price stability. Therefore, this area of analyses and research is of key importance for central banks, including Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP). Every two years since 2011,...

The paper presents the procedure and two structural macroeconometric models used at the National Bank of Poland for producing regular quarterly inflation projections. One of the models is a small macroeconomic model based on the New Keynesian Phillips curve, the IS curve and the exchange rate...

In the paper we show the macroeconomic effects of a monetary policy shock using both recursive and non-recursive SVAR decomposition. We find that the responsiveness of the CPI index and output in Poland is smaller and slower than in the euro zone. Using panel data we check how bank-specific...

In the light of the results of empirical studies presented in the Report and the literature available45 it may be concluded that the form of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland is consistent with structural features of the Polish economy and coincides with those characteristic...

The paper provides an overview of the literature on the role of monetary aggregates for conducting monetary policy and attempts to assess the role of these aggregates in the Polish monetary policy. We compare theoretical and empirical arguments which justify or undermine the need for usage of...

House prices are usually characterized by periods of long-lasting growth that lead to uncertainty concerning their persistence. This uncertainty is of special importance for central banks: the prolonged periods of rise followed by sudden fall in house prices are often associated with a credit...

Poland faces one of the most rapidly ageing population in Europe. The old age dependency ratio is expected to triple until 2060. Against this background, our paper examines the sustainability of Polish public finances and its isolated subsystems. We consider the profound recent reforms including...

We study market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis. In our analysis we use a parsimonious CDS pricing model to estimate market implied measures of the probability of default (PD) and of the loss given default (LGD). We find that separate...

The aim of this paper is to show how housing tenure (rented vs. owner-occupied) affects monetary policy. In order to do that, I propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with housing, both owned and rented. First, I analyze how, in the model, preference parameters, fiscal incentives...