DSGE models have recently become one of the most frequently used tools in policy analysis. Nevertheless, their forecasting proprieties are still unexplored. In this article we address this problem by examining the quality of forecasts from a small size DSGE model, a trivariate VAR model and the...

In this study, we use the tools of cross-spectral analysis and structural vector autoregression (SVAR) modelling to investigate whether there exists a significant link between the movement of the cyclical component of real GDP in developed and emerging economies. Specifically, we look at the...

The literature on exchange rate forecasting is vast. Many researchers have tested whether implications of theoretical economic models or the use of advanced econometric techniques can help explain future movements in exchange rates. The results of the empirical studies for major world currencies...

House prices are usually characterized by periods of long-lasting growth that lead to uncertainty concerning their persistence. This uncertainty is of special importance for central banks: the prolonged periods of rise followed by sudden fall in house prices are often associated with a credit...

Poland faces one of the most rapidly ageing population in Europe. The old age dependency ratio is expected to triple until 2060. Against this background, our paper examines the sustainability of Polish public finances and its isolated subsystems. We consider the profound recent reforms including...

We study market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis. In our analysis we use a parsimonious CDS pricing model to estimate market implied measures of the probability of default (PD) and of the loss given default (LGD). We find that separate...

The aim of this paper is to show how housing tenure (rented vs. owner-occupied) affects monetary policy. In order to do that, I propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with housing, both owned and rented. First, I analyze how, in the model, preference parameters, fiscal incentives...

Using a growth accounting exercise based on new estimates of flows of capital and labor services in the Polish economy during the period 1995-2013, we study the consequences of the recent global economic crisis for the observed pace and structure of economic growth in Poland – a converging...

We study the implications of multi-period loans for monetary and macroprudential policy, considering several realistic modifications – variable vs. fixed loan rates, non-negativity constraint on newly granted loans, and possibility for the collateral constraint to become slack – to an...

We identify determinants of large disparities in local unemployment rates in Poland using panel data on NUTS-4 level (poviats) We find that the disparities are linked to local demographics, education and sectoral employment composition rather than to local demand factors However, the impact of...