The four papers which follow were written for a conference organised by the National Institute on 24 February. The papers draw on some of the major developments in macroeconomic research and policy appraisal at the Institute over the last two or three years. Particular emphasis is placed on the...

This paper examines the outcomes for changes introduced by the UK Coalition government in 2010. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is generally regarded as a success, and should become a permanent part of fiscal policymaking. The form of the primary fiscal mandate, involving a five-year...

In the 'overall outlook' section we explain why we think the world economy is not heading for recession. The short-term forecast is then presented in detail in sections covering the six major economies, commodity prices and trade. We then have three special sections. The first looks at our...