This paper examines the outcomes for changes introduced by the UK Coalition government in 2010. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is generally regarded as a success, and should become a permanent part of fiscal policymaking. The form of the primary fiscal mandate, involving a five-year...

In the 'overall outlook' section we explain why we think the world economy is not heading for recession. The short-term forecast is then presented in detail in sections covering the six major economies, commodity prices and trade. We then have three special sections. The first looks at our...

Beginning with this Review, the World Economy chapter contains a number of changes in format and content. The first half of the chapter presents the main forecast, which for the first time is produced with the aid of a quarterly econometric model, GEM. The second half of the chapter will be...

In the 'overall outlook' section we focus on the influence of the Group of Five (G5) 'accord' on exchange-rate prospects, and compare the expected impact of an appreciating currency on growth prospects in Japan and Germany. The short-term forecast is then discussed in more detail in sections...

Macroeconomic theory clearly suggests that at the zero lower bound, fiscal contraction will reduce output and slow any recovery. Yet in 2010 the focus of fiscal policy in many countries switched from supporting activity to reducing debt, despite the fact that the recovery from recession often...