This paper investigates the implications of population ageing and changes in labour force participation rates for projections of revenue obtained from personal income taxation and a consumption tax (in the form of a broad-based goods and services tax). A projection model is presented, involving...

This paper discusses the challenge for fiscal sustainability in New Zealand in the face of the demographic transition involving population ageing and the 'ageing of the aged'. The need for rational policy analysis is stressed in examining a wide range of policy responses and trade-offs, and the...

This paper examines the extent to which projected aggregate tax revenue changes, in association with population ageing over the next 50 years, can be expected to finance expected increases in social welfare expenditures. Projections from two separate models, dealing with social expenditures and...

This paper presents stochastic projections for 13 categories of social spending in New Zealand over the next 50 years. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by single year of age and gender. Distributional...

This paper considers the extent to which the standard argument, that the disproportionate excess burden of taxation suggests the use of tax smoothing in the face of future cost increases, is modified by uncertainty regarding the future. The role of uncertainty and risk aversion is examined using...

This paper investigates the choice of the composition of government expenditure using both positive and normative approaches. The former involves aggregation over selfish voters (simple majority voting and stochastic voting are examined), while the latter involves the choice by a single...

This paper examines the sensitivity of inequality and poverty measures to the adult equivalence scale and the unit of analysis. Comparisons are made using parametric equivalence scales, and income units include individuals, equivalent adults and households. The role of the correlation between...

The exponential family of distributions offers considerable scope for the analysis of income distributions because of its ability to 'nest' many densities and the possibility of deriving special cases explicitly from labour demand and supply models. This paper presents several estimation methods...

This paper considers the implications for personal income tax and Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenues of population ageing in New Zealand. It considers 'pure' ageing effects; that is, population size is held constant but its age distribution changes over the next 40 years. With age-earnings...