We present a new method for imposing parameter restrictions in Markov-Switching Vector Autoregression (MS-VAR) models. Our method is more flexible than competing methodologies and easily handles a range of parameter restrictions over different equations, regimes and parameter types. We also...

This paper proposes a method and a toolkit for solving optimal policy with imperfect commitment in linear quadratic models. As opposed to the existing literature, our method can be employed in medium- and large-scale models typically used in monetary policy. We apply our method to the Smets and...

We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or...

New-generation DSGE models are sometimes misspecified in dimensions that matter for their forecasting performance. The paper suggests one way to improve the forecasts of a DSGE model using a conditioning information that need not be accurate. The technique presented allows for agents to...

This paper analyzes the cost-benefit trade-off of leaning against the wind (LAW) in monetary policy. Our starting point is a New Keynesian Markov-switching model where the economy can be in a normal state or in a crisis state. The set-up enables us to weigh benefits against costs for different...