An extensive literature explains recession risks using a variety of financial and business cycle variables. The problem of selecting a parsimonious set of explanatory variables, which can differ between countries and prediction horizons, is naturally suited to machine-learning methods. The...

Over the past decades, productivity growth and technology diffusion have slowed down, and business dynamism has declined in many advanced and emerging economies. Meanwhile, inequalities in economic outcomes, such as in income and wealth, and in opportunities, such as access to quality education...

This study investigates the capacity of governments to reallocate spending across different functions of the government. It mobilises the COFOG dataset for the period 1996 - 2017, which allows comparing public spending mixes at detailed levels in ways that are consistent across countries and...

The paper reviews the diverse experience of OECD countries in establishing and running independent fiscal institutions, offering insights that could be useful for Latin American countries seeking to set-up and strengthen those institutions in the region. Through cluster analysis, we identify...

This paper describes an algorithm, “DoomBot”, which selects parsimonious models to predict downturns over different quarterly horizons covering the ensuing two years for 20 OECD countries. The models are country- and horizon-specific and are automatically updated as the estimation sample...

The landscapes of housing loan markets vary considerably across OECD countries, reflecting differences in preferences and policy settings. This paper first draws a topography of disparities in mortgage structure, documenting considerable variation across OECD countries in key features such as in...

Inter-regional migration – the movements of the population from one region to another within the same country – can be an important mechanism of spatial economic adjustment, affecting regional demographic and growth patterns. This paper examines the economic and housing-related factors that...

This paper provides a descriptive analysis of patterns and trends of worker transitions across European countries and the United States, with an emphasis on differences across socio-economic groups. Understanding labour market transitions is important to gauge the scope of labour market...

The aim of this paper is to assess the ability of social spending to smooth output shocks and to provide stabilization. The results show that overall social spending is able to smooth about 16 percent of a shock to GDP. Among its subcategories, social spending devoted to Old Age and Unemployment...