This paper aims at assessing the robustness of demographic projections to different assumptions on mortality, fertility and migration. It builds on a small-scale simulation model for 23 OECD countries, which reproduces closely national projections under similar demographic assumptions. Up to...

This paper aims at assessing the robustness of demographic projections to different assumptions on mortality, fertility and migration. It builds on a small-scale simulation model for 23 OECD countries, which reproduces closely national projections under similar demographic assumptions. Up to...

This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for projecting public heath and long-term care expenditures. Notably, it considers the impact of demographic and non-demographic effects for both health and long-term care. Compared with other studies, the paper extends the demographic drivers by...

This paper provides a synthesis of age-related developments and policies for a range of OECD countries, drawing on recent OECD work. It describes the expected impact of ageing on expenditure and fiscal pressures taking into account the current configuration of age-related policies. Since later...

China’s population is set to age fast, owing to low fertility and rising life expectancy. With ongoing migration of the younger cohorts to urban areas the increase in the old-age dependency ratio will be even more pronounced in rural than in urban areas. Very different pension arrangements...

This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections until 2060, seven years after a first set of projections was published by the OECD. It disentangles health from longterm care expenditure, as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and...

Finland’s population is set to age rapidly in the coming decades. This will put pressure on public finances, while shrinking labour resources. Nonetheless, solutions exist to alleviate those pressures. Adjusting the pension age in line with the rise in life expectancy would reduce pension...

The increase in human longevity is a major achievement, which brings individual well-being and strong contributions to society, but population ageing also generates challenges. This paper documents demographic trends in OECD countries, highlighting that ageing today largely reflects past...

China’s population is set to age fast, owing to low fertility and rising life expectancy. With ongoing migration of the younger cohorts to urban areas the increase in the old-age dependency ratio will be even more pronounced in rural than in urban areas. Very different pension arrangements...

This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for projecting public heath and long-term care expenditures. Notably, it considers the impact of demographic and non-demographic effects for both health and long-term care. Compared with other studies, the paper extends the demographic drivers by...