During the first two years of monetary union, the euro's weakness surprised most market participants. Explanations proliferated ranging from fundamentals such as differences in growth prospects to psychological factors such as herd behaviour, but no single story fully accounts for the observed...

The paper examines the desirability of exchange rate management in a commodity-exporting country, in which the terms of trade are driven by the world commodity price cycle. When the authorities are assumed to pursue an inflation objective, the usefulness of managing the rate depends on the...

This paper considers the case for adjusting measures of the cyclically-adjusted fiscal balance for exceptional movements in the terms of trade for those countries where production of commodities is a substantial share of output. For such countries exceptional movements in commodity prices, such...

Switzerland has had a long-standing surplus on its current account. But over the past 15 years that surplus has surged to levels unmatched by nearly any other OECD country at any point. This paper looks at the surplus from a balance of payments vantage point as well as from the optic of the...

Data are shown to generate efficiency gains but to have been unevenly shared across firms and households, and the subpar economic performance of most advanced economies (prior to the pandemic) has been attributed to increased market power originating, at least in part, from the increased use of...

Switzerland has had a long-standing surplus on its current account. But over the past 15 years that surplus has surged to levels unmatched by nearly any other OECD country at any point. This paper looks at the surplus from a balance of payments vantage point as well as from the optic of the...

A defining aspect of the digital age is data and its business use. Data have become an important input for firms (e.g., to train artificial intelligence algorithms) but data use is neither accounted for in macroeconomic statistics nor part of business contracts for goods and services provided to...

This paper describes an algorithm, “DoomBot”, which selects parsimonious models to predict downturns over different quarterly horizons covering the ensuing two years for 20 OECD countries. The models are country- and horizon-specific and are automatically updated as the estimation sample...

An extensive literature explains recession risks using a variety of financial and business cycle variables. The problem of selecting a parsimonious set of explanatory variables, which can differ between countries and prediction horizons, is naturally suited to machine-learning methods. The...

Against a background of mounting demands for spending on services provided by sub-central governments, this paper examines how fiscal rules can help to ensure that pressure on resources is minimised and available resources are used efficiently. Drawing on questionnaire responses and other...