A dynamic factor model is applied to a large panel dataset of Singapore’s macroeconomic variables and global economic indicators with the initial objective of analysing business cycles in a small open economy. The empirical results suggest that four common factors – which can broadly be...

We pursue a two-fold objective in this paper. First, we try to describe comprehensively the behaviour of sectoral growth cycles in Turkish manufacturing by using several statistical measures and to analyse the co-movement between them via correlation and peak-through analysis. One of the...

This paper proposes an indicator for detecting business cycles turning points incorporating mixed frequency business survey data. It is based on a hidden Markow-Switching model and allows for the detection of regime changes in a given economy where information is displayed monthly, bimonthly and...