To test a model of contagion--where individuals hear some bad news and communicate it to their acquaintances, who then pass it on, leading to a market panic--requires a knowledge of the information networks of participants, something hitherto unavailable. For two panics in the 1850s this paper...

This paper tests a smart money-noise trader model directly by comparing its predictions with the behavior of actual investors. It assumes that individual probability of being a noise trader is diminishing in income, high-income households are smart money, lower-income households are noise...

Looking at house price cycles across the OECD since 1970, we find a strong relationship between the size of the initial rise in price and its subsequent fall. Were this relationship to hold for Ireland, it would predict falls of real house prices of 40 to 60 per cent over a period of 8 to 9...

This paper analyzes the evolution of an economy where growth is driven by increased specialization caused by the geographical expansion of markets. It proves that such Smithian growth exhibits generic threshold behavior. Below a critical density of transport linkages, the economy is split into...

The power of the metaphor of contagion—that beliefs, actions, and strategies spread among economic agents like pathogens among biological organisms— causes it to recur in disparate areas of economics. This article focusses on four applications of contagion to economics: social influence or...

This paper considers the relationship between inequality and crime using data from urban counties. The behavior of property and violent crime are quite different. Inequality has no effect on property crime but a strong and robust impact on violent crime, with an elasticity above 0.5. By...

Mass emigration was one key feature of the Great Irish Famine which distinguishes it from today's famines. By bringing famine victims to overseas food supplies, it undoubtedly saved many lives. Poverty traps prevented those most in need from availing of this form of relief, however. Cross-county...