The controversy over the selection of 'growth regressions' was precipitated by some remarkably numerous 'estimation' strategies, including two million regressions by Sala-i-Martin ["American Economic Review" (1997b) Vol. 87, pp. 178-183]. Only one regression is really needed, namely the general...

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models have emerged as a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics, but suffer from the large number of parameters employed and the resulting estimation uncertainty associated with their impulse responses. In this paper, we propose...

We establish the consistency of the selection procedures embodied in "PcGets", and compare their performance with other model selection criteria in linear regressions. The significance levels embedded in the "PcGets" Liberal and Conservative algorithms coincide in very large samples with those...

Although out-of-sample forecast performance is often deemed to be the 'gold standard' of evaluation, it is not in fact a good yardstick for evaluating models in general. The arguments are illustrated with reference to a recent paper by Carruth, Hooker and Oswald ["Review of Economics and...