type="main" xml:lang="en" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>We comprehensively analyse the long-run effect of foreign aid (ODA) on key macroeconomic variables in 36 sub-Saharan African countries from the mid-1960s to 2007, using a well-specified cointegrated VAR model as statistical benchmark. Results provide broad...</p>

A cointegrated VAR model describing a small macroeconomic system consisting of money, income, prices, and interest rates is estimated on split sample data before and after 1983. The monetary mechanisms were found to be significantly different. Before 1983, the money supply seemed controlable and...

This paper gives a systematic application of maximum likelihood inference concerning cointegration vectors in non-stationary vector valued autoregressive time series models with Gaussian errors, where the model includes a constant term and seasonal dummies. The hypothesis of cointegration is...

The objective of this paper is to apply the mis-specification (M-S) encompassing perspective to the problem of choosing between "linear" and "log-linear" unit-root models. A simple M-S encompassing test, based on an auxiliary regression stemming from the conditional second moment, is proposed...

Although out-of-sample forecast performance is often deemed to be the 'gold standard' of evaluation, it is not in fact a good yardstick for evaluating models in general. The arguments are illustrated with reference to a recent paper by Carruth, Hooker and Oswald ["Review of Economics and...

An open question in empirical economics is whether models should be estimated by using the actual, or linear, values of economic variables or their logarithms. This paper applies the principle of encompassing to suggest specification and mis-specification tests of log vs. linear individual...

Ordinary least squares estimation of an impulse-indicator coefficient is inconsistent, but its variance can be consistently estimated. Although the ratio of the inconsistent estimator to its standard error has a "t"-distribution, that test is inconsistent: one solution is to form an index of...