In this paper, the authors present a methodology for measuring the effects of economic policy where expectations are forward-looking. The methodology is then applied to the National Institute model, version 11; in this version, expectational variables appear in several key equations and the model...

Successful exchange rate regimes impose policy disciplines that are likely to lead to conformity in the business cycles of the participating countries. This conjecture is borne out in the paper by the evidence in it that the business cycle affiliation of Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) member...

Economic policies rely on demographic projections. Yet in making these projections, researchers often ignore the aspect of household formation—despite sustained trends in many industrialized countries towards smaller household units with fewer members. Over the long term, this trend is likely...

This paper studies the intranational business cycle--that is the set of regional (prefectural) business cycles--in Japan. One reason for choosing to examine the Japanese case is that long time series of relatively detailed data are available. A Hodrick-Prescott filter is applied to identify...