A new variant of the ARCH class of models for forecasting the conditional variance, to be called the Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Parkinson Range (GARCH-PARK-R) model, is proposed. The GARCH-PARK-R model, utilizing the extreme values, is a good alternative to the...

This paper introduces new methods of estimating Value-at-Risk (VaR) using range-based GARCH (general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) models. These models, which could be based on either the Parkinson range or the Garman-Klass range, are applied to ten stock market indices of...

A central question for empirical economics, particularly economic growth, is which explanatory variables to include and exclude in the regressions. This paper aims to identify variables strongly correlated with provincial income growth in the Philippines by applying robustness procedures in...

The adoption of Basel II standards by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas initiates financial institutions to develop value-at-risk (VaR)models to measure market risk. In this paper, two VaR models are considered using the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach of the extreme value theory (EVT) : (1)...

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has the primary responsibility of maintaining stable prices conducive to a balanced and sustainable economic growth. The year 2008 posed a challenge to the BSP’s monetary policy making as inflation hit an official 17-year high of 12.5 percent in August...

The high poverty incidence in the country is a concern that needs to be addressed by our policy makers. Of?cial poverty statistics from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) show that the reduction in poverty over the past two decades has been quite dismal from 38 percent in 1988 to...